According to trading company Alvean, the share of Indian sugar in the global market will expand next year, given that production in major exporters Brazil and Thailand has been affected by some problems.
Production in Brazil continues to be hampered by drought and frost, and cane crush volumes in the south-central region will struggle to recover in 2022/23. Raw sugar futures have remained strong since August, after the layer touched a four-year high due to the potential impact of bad weather in Brazil on global supplies. Although India's exports are lower than those of Brazil and Thailand, the market is closely monitoring the country's supply situation, and some Indian exporters now expect global prices to rise further. New York raw sugar prices need to be above the break-even price for Indian exports in order to maximize Indian exports.
The agency expects Thai sugar production in 2021/22 to be close to 9.5 million tons, compared with 10.5 million tons forecast by many agencies in the market.